Every two months, we survey 600 mid-sized business leaders across the country to understand their expectations and priorities for the future.

We use this data to track changing market sentiment over time, and explore topical issues and challenges facing mid-sized businesses in the UK. Here's what the latest December survey told us.

UK economic outlook

Net 72% of respondents are optimistic about the outlook of the UK economy, a -1 percentage point (pp) decrease compared to October 2024. Business pessimism on the UK economy has remained steady at 13%, in line with the last two rounds.

Optimism on the outlook of the UK economy over next six months

Revenue growth

Revenue growth expectations have dropped again in December, a -4pp decrease compared to October 2024, following the steady decline that has been seen across the year. Net 15% of respondents are now pessimistic about ​their revenue growth, which is triple the amount at the start of this year.

Optimism on business revenue growth over next six months

Funding position

Confidence in their funding position has been on a steady decline in 2024 and it remained stagnant in December at 70%, a -9pp decline since the start of this year. The percentage of businesses pessimistic about their position has also increased in December, +2pp compared to October.  

Optimism on business funding position over next six months

Profit expectations

Profit expectations jumped back slightly in December (+9pp) compared to October but remain significantly below the confidence seen in February this year (-21pp) and -6pp below the rolling average since the Tracker began in January 2021. The percentage of businesses expecting profits to decrease dropped -1pp compared to October, but remains at the second highest level since December 2021, with 43% expecting to see a decrease.

Profit growth expectations over next six months

Business investment expectations

Following the Government's announcements around hikes in the National Minimum Wage and employers’ National Insurance Contributions for organisations in the Autumn Budget, businesses’ investment expectations in employee reward and benefits have dropped most significantly this round (-9pp). This is followed by employee wellbeing (-7pp) and skills development (-5pp).

While most of the investment indicators tracked have either dropped or remained the same in December, there was a slight increase in investment expected in technology (+1pp), and plant machinery and new buildings (+1pp) as we head into the new year.

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