At the close of 2024, mid-market businesses were riding a steady wave of optimism. According to Grant Thornton’s International Business Report (IBR) research, 65.4% of UK mid-market firms planned to increase their exports in Q4 2024, with a similarly strong 62.5% expecting revenue growth from international markets.
When we entered 2025, this started to dip, with 61.3% of UK mid-market firms planning to increase their exports (down 4.1 pp) and 61.3% expecting revenue growth from international markets (down 1.2 pp).
Despite trade tensions escalating so far this year, the optimism amongst mid-market firms in the UK has increased from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 (up 9.5pp to 75.2%). Interestingly, for the same period, global mid-market optimism experienced its first notable dip in two years (down 2.9pp to 72.7%).
What began as isolated measures from the US administration has unprecedently morphed into what experts have described as “the most aggressive overhaul of the global economic system in decades”. While the 90-day pause on some of the most extreme tariffs offers some solace, UK mid-market businesses will ultimately face new trade dynamics that could dilute their optimism, reducing future investment and ultimately impacting broader economic growth.
Since 2023, the UK mid-market has been increasingly confident about increasing the number of countries they sell to (39.4% in H2 2023 to 65.7% in Q1 2025). Even in the short period between Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, there was a 2.6pp increase.
Every year since 2021, when considering the non-domestic markets they sell into, UK businesses have expected the US to bring the highest revenue growth. As of Q1 this year, it’s the same story – but with the market instability brought by the tariffs, the US may not hold the number one spot in Q2.
While the uncertainty makes preparation difficult, UK businesses can consider how they’ll strategically maximise their value on their home base in the near future. During previous periods of market turbulence – the Global Financial Crisis, widespread disruptions brought on by COVID – the mid-market were able to focus on their portfolio of non-domestic business to grow. These tariffs are forcing firms to reassess their markets, potentially adjusting their business models – and ambitions – in response.
Faced with a fragmented global market, some mid-market businesses may soon confront the difficult decision to scale down or even halt trade in markets where tariffs make continued engagement unsustainable. For many, this could mean rethinking traditional strategies in favour of structural adjustments – altering contract terms, reconfiguring payment structures or even reimagining supply chain logistics. While these decisions are challenging, they are sometimes necessary to help mitigate impact and safeguard long-term competitiveness.
We’ve already seen the mid-market begin to shift resourcing when it comes to key areas such as supply chain resilience. By the end of 2024, 35.6% of mid-market leaders said they planned to invest their available resources in preventing supply chain interruption. This is a big increase on the 10% who cited that supply chain issues had negatively impacted their business in 2024. This preparation stems from the experience gathered from weathering previous downturns and the ability to make strong, resolute decisions.
Change is constant. The latest tariffs from the US are a clear reminder of how quickly changes in global market conditions can disrupt best-laid plans and put businesses’ agility to the ultimate test.
But the UK mid-market is resilient – and certainly no stranger to navigating severe challenges. By regularly assessing the risks, maximising the value of domestic markets and adjusting supply chains, businesses could find themselves unlocking opportunities amidst the uncertainty.
Whether tariffs are lifted, reduced, or return in a more disruptive form, there are practical steps you can take now to prepare for the future.
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