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Tom Middleton
London
Associate Director

Tom Middleton

I lead the quantitative economics team in the economic consulting practice, I use econometrics and data science to provide clients robust insights from data in a practical and accessible way.

I am a quantitative economist in the economic consulting team with experience in research, government and consultancy. My core area of expertise is in the provision of quantitative empirical models and analysis of counterfactuals to give practical and robust analysis of the causal effects of matters of interest. I provide independent and advisory expert empirical analysis of the impact of:

  • alleged anti-competitive conduct, including for the purposes of litigation and disputes
  • alleged breaches of financial disclosure rules in the context of securities litigation.

I also apply these empirical techniques to the task of impact evaluation be that for policy in a government context or any form of corporate action for corporate clients.  

I focus on combining analytical rigour with tractable and digestible insights drawn from the underlying complexity. Econometric analysis can be complex and opaque. My varied experience working in the public sector, for a competition regulator, and in the context of legal disputes, has taught me that the value in econometric analysis comes not from complexity but through the ability to coalesce the output from such analysis into points on which clients can act and derive meaning from. My broader competition experience includes leading the econometric analysis of a Phase 2 merger investigation while working at the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA), an econometric analysis in the context of a market study and analyses of the potential impacts on competition of alternative policy options. 

I have been appointed as an expert in a competition-related appeal before the Competition Appeal Tribunal (CAT) and on an advisory basis to claimants seeking competition-related damages in the UK. My analysis has included the econometric consideration of overcharge and pass-on as well as broader case-specific issues.

Similarly, I have been appointed as an expert on group securities actions relating to alleged breaches of financial disclosure rules. My analysis has predominantly been based on the use of empirical models to estimate the impact of the alleged infringement on the share price of interest.

Other experience includes estimating the causal impact of interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic for the UK government using state-of-the-art quantitative techniques and using machine learning techniques to nowcast macroeconomic variables to facilitate agile policymaking during the pandemic. 

Outside of work I prioritise spending quality time with my young family, enjoying walks along the coast near our home. 

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Qualifications
  • PhD Economics, University of Kent
  • MSc Economics, University of Kent
  • BSc Financial Economics with Econometrics with a Year in Industry, University of Kent
Tom Middleton
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Associate Director
Tom Middleton
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